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The position of Boris Johnson as UK’s Prime Minister seems to be getting more and more unstable by the hour, as he is trying to deal with the consequences occurring as a result of Sue Gray’s initial report into the ongoing “Partygate” scandal. The turbulence surrounding Mr Johnson’s fate as Prime Minister has become worse since the revelations of parties and social gatherings of the UK Government and Conservative Party staff that have taken place since the coronavirus pandemic outbreak in violation of the country’s public health restrictions under which certain types of gatherings were banned in 2020 and 2021.
Currently, Boris Johnson is in the middle of a crossfire. He is being accused of degrading the value of the Prime Minister’s office and is called to resign by his political opponents, but the fact that a number of his fellow Tory Members of Parliament have publicly criticised him has probably affected him the most.
Former Prime Minister Theresa May who is also a member of the Conservative Party was among the political figures who criticised Mr Johnson in the Commons after Sue Gray’s report including the scandalous revelations of “Partygate” was published.
What the Gray report does show is that No 10 Downing Street was not observing the regulations they had imposed on members of the public, so either my right honourable friend had not read the rules or didn’t understand what they meant and others around him, or they didn’t think the rules applied to No 10. Which was it?” – Ms Theresa May, former Prime Minister of the UK
The situation has been heating up over the last week and Boris Johnson could be ousted from his position in case enough Members of Parliament from the Conservative Party decide to submit letters of no confidence in his leadership.
Possible No-Confidence Vote in Johnson Goes Viral on Twitter
The high changes for a no-confidence vote in the UK Prime Minister to take Place by the end of February triggered an avalanche of comments on social media, especially on Twitter. Both large media hubs and regular users of the network share their opinions, with many of them saying that it is high time for Boris Johnson to start packing his bags and leave 10 Downing Street.
No-confidence vote in Boris Johnson this week, says Tory MP – as minister comes up with new explanation for how PM ended up at party. Live updates 👇
— Sky News (@SkyNews) January 19, 2022
Does Boris Johnson Have the Sword of Damocles Hanging Over His Head?
Even though the political opponents of Mr Johnson have called for him to resign, experts believe that a no-confidence vote in his leadership is much more probable. A no-confidence leadership contest can be triggered in case 15% of the Tory Members of Parliament write to the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee to withdraw their support from the current Prime Minister.
— The Political Rants (@vinod_d007) February 2, 2022
Then, a no-confidence vote is organised and held, with Tory MPs voting either in support or against the leader, who is ousted if over 50% of the Conservative Party MPs vote against them. Considering there are 359 Members of Parliament from the Conservative Party, a leadership contest would be triggered in case 54 of them send letters to the chair of the 1922 Committee.
A no-confidence vote can happen quickly, so the chances of Boris Johnson losing his leadership position by the end of February 2022 are actually pretty high. A Prime Minister who loses a confidence vote cannot participate in the subsequent contest for the leadership position.
Members of Parliament are not required to reveal if they have submitted a no-confidence letter, so there could not be a 100% guarantee whether Boris Johnson is getting closer to a leadership challenge or not.
— Cameron Asquith (@camaskman) February 2, 2022
The first Tory MP who publicly came out against Mr Johnson was Christian Wakeford, MP for South Bury. However, he had a change of heart and has given up his allegiance for the Tories in exchange for allegiance for the Labour Party, so his no-confidence letter has effectively been withdrawn. So far, twelve Conservative Party MPs have publicly announced they are withdrawing their support from the Prime Minister:
- Tobias Ellwood, former minister, MP for Bournemouth East;
- Andrew Mitchell, former minister, MP for Sutton Coldfield;
- David Davis, former minister, MP for Haltemprice and Howden;
- Douglas Ross, leader of the Scottish Conservative Party, MP for Moray;
- Caroline Nokes, MP for Romsey and Southampton North;
- Sir Roger Gale, MP for North Thanet;
- Aaron Bell, MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme;
- Peter Aldous, MP for Waveney;
- Gary Streeter, MP for South West Devon;
- Tim Loughton, MP for East Worthing and Shoreham;
- Andrew Bridgen, Mp for North West Leicestershire;
- William Wragg, MP for Hazel Grove
According to reports, last weekend some Tory backbenchers revealed that the Party’s MPs who were willing to see Johnson out from No 10 Downing Street were only 10 to 20 short of the 54 letters of no-confidence that need to be submitted to Sir Graham Brady, the Chair of the 1922 Committee. Some MPs from the Conservative Party said they believed that between 40 and 45 letters of no-confidence were in or pending.
— MI6 ROGUE (@mi6rogue) February 2, 2022
Backbench Supporter Says Johnson’s Removal Is Inevitable after “Partygate” Revelations
The desperate efforts of Mr Johnson to save his leadership seem to be more and more undermined by the day, especially after one of his most loyal supporters criticised him and warned that his removal from office could not be avoided, considering the “Partygate” scandal.
In an interview with The Observer, Sir Charles Walker, who was once a vice-chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs, called for the Prime Minister to voluntarily step down in the national interest. Mr Walker, who at the beginning of the month announced his decision to resign as a Member of Parliament, said that he believed Johnson had got many things right, including the Government’s policy on the vaccine roll-out and deserved to be remembered for them, and not mostly for his potential loss of a leadership challenge.
— Is #Brexit a Failure? (@failurebrexit) February 5, 2022
Still, he acknowledged that the anger of the traumatised nation had been focused on the revelations of the parties that took place in No 10 Downing Street during national lockdowns and the public attitudes were highly unlikely to change for the better. So far, Mr Walker is understood not to have submitted a letter of no-confidence in the Prime Minister.
Some experts believe that Boris Johnson’s departure from the Prime Minister’s seat is only a matter of time, especially considering the fact that his operation at No 10 Downing Street was seriously shaken after the resignations of five of his key aides a week ago.
Johnson has tried to strengthen his position by two appointments – the one of Steve Barclay, the chancellor of the duchy of Lancaster, as his chief for staff, and the one of Guto Harri, who was one of his aides at the time when Johnson acted as mayor of London, as his director of communications. It is important to note that the appointment of a Member of Parliament as chief of staff is quite unusual and suggests that the Prime Minister may have faced some difficulties in recruiting an outsider to occupy the position at a time when his reign in No 10 would not probably last much longer. The appointment of Mr Harri also came as a surprise because of his strong criticism of the UK Prime Minister in recent years.
What Are the Odds of a No-Confidence Vote against Johnson by the End of February 2022?
Some of the largest bookmakers in the UK have provided their odds on Mr Johnson’s departure from 10 Downing Street, with approximately 90% of the punters believing that he would step down by the end of 2022. However, it seems that a lower number of punters believe that could happen by the end of February this year.
|Boris Johnson No-Confidence Vote Triggered by End of February 2022?|
|Boris Johnson No-Confidence Vote in February 2022?|
|Back all||Lay all|
|Yes||3.5 £830||3.6 £207||3.65 £14||3.95 £37||4.6 £55||5.8 £12|
|No||1.21 £57||1.28 £200||1.34 £110||1.38 £579||1.4 £2,075||1.43 £10|
|Will a Boris Johnson No-Confidence Vote on his leadership of the Conservative Party be triggered by the End of February 2022?|
Could We Expect to See Resignation Filed by Boris Johnson?
Despite all the Members of Parliament calling for him to resign, the Prime Minister has not stepped down. Mr Johnson has explained that he intends to hold on to his leadership position and continue attempting to deliver the promises he made in his manifesto in 2019.
Last week, Johnson addressed Sue Gray’s damning report in the House of Commons and even accepted Ms Gray’s general findings in full. He further acknowledged that he must learn from the recent events and now act “with respect to the events under police investigation.”
Johnson took responsibility for the problems raised in the recent findings of the British civil servant who became Second Permanent Secretary in the Cabinet Office in May 2021. He further noted that he understands the issue people have issues with and confirmed that the UK Government could be trusted.
The Prime Minister’s commentary was not particularly effective to tone down the anger from either side of the House of Commons, with Theresa May’s words of criticism considered particularly damning.
|Will Boris Johnson announce his resignation as PM in February 2022?|
|Year in which Boris Johnson will leave the post of Prime Minister|
|2023 or later||5/4|
*Odds may vary from the date of writing
**This information is provided for informative purposes only and does not promote gambling activities
Harry Evans is a long-year journalist with a passion for poker. Apart from a good game of poker, he loves to write which is why he spent several years as an editor of a local news magazine.